Earnings Update: Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. (TSE:6770) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Investors in Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. (TSE:6770) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.8% to close at JP¥1,506 following the release of its yearly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at JP¥964b, statutory losses exploded to JP¥145 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Alps Alpine

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from twelve analysts covering Alps Alpine is for revenues of JP¥928.7b in 2025. This implies a discernible 3.7% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Alps Alpine forecast to report a statutory profit of JP¥93.64 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥943.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥62.77 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥1,164, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Alps Alpine analyst has a price target of JP¥1,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥850. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alps Alpine's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alps Alpine is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Alps Alpine's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alps Alpine. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Alps Alpine analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Alps Alpine , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.