Some Confidence Is Lacking In Nextgen,Inc. (TSE:3842) As Shares Slide 30%

Nextgen,Inc. (TSE:3842) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 30% share price drop in the last month. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.

Although its price has dipped substantially, it's still not a stretch to say that NextgenInc's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Communications industry in Japan, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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View our latest analysis for NextgenInc

What Does NextgenInc's Recent Performance Look Like?

It looks like revenue growth has deserted NextgenInc recently, which is not something to boast about. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be feeling hopeful about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on NextgenInc's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is NextgenInc's Revenue Growth Trending?

NextgenInc's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Likewise, not much has changed from three years ago as revenue have been stuck during that whole time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been satisfied with the complete absence of medium-term growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 30% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that NextgenInc is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What Does NextgenInc's P/S Mean For Investors?

Following NextgenInc's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We find it unexpected that NextgenInc trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for NextgenInc that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.