Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Pacific Systems Corporation (TYO:3847)

How far off is Pacific Systems Corporation (TYO:3847) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Pacific Systems

Is Pacific Systems fairly valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥581.5m	JP¥509.6m	JP¥465.6m	JP¥437.5m	JP¥419.1m	JP¥406.8m	JP¥398.5m	JP¥392.9m	JP¥389.0m	JP¥386.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -17.69%	Est @ -12.37%	Est @ -8.64%	Est @ -6.03%	Est @ -4.21%	Est @ -2.93%	Est @ -2.04%	Est @ -1.41%	Est @ -0.97%	Est @ -0.67%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4%	JP¥536	JP¥434	JP¥365	JP¥317	JP¥280	JP¥251	JP¥226	JP¥206	JP¥188	JP¥172

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥3.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.05%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥386m× (1 + 0.05%) ÷ (8.4%– 0.05%) = JP¥4.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥4.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)¹⁰= JP¥2.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is JP¥5.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of JP¥3.0k, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pacific Systems as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.146. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Pacific Systems, we've put together three important factors you should assess:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 4 warning signs for Pacific Systems we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the JASDAQ every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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