What Goodpatch, Inc.'s (TSE:7351) P/E Is Not Telling You

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37.9x Goodpatch, Inc. (TSE:7351) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 13x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Goodpatch's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Goodpatch

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Goodpatch, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Goodpatch would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 36% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 71% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Goodpatch's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Goodpatch currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Goodpatch (2 are concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Goodpatch, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.