Otsuka Corporation

TSE:4768 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.3t

Otsuka Valuation

Is 4768 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4768 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4768 (¥3477) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥3222.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4768 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4768?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

4768 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.7x
PEG Ratio4.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4768's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4768 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.8x
4739 ITOCHU Techno-Solutions
26.9x10.8%JP¥997.1b
9719 SCSK
23x8.5%JP¥922.9b
3626 TIS
16.4x2.6%JP¥809.8b
4684 OBICLtd
36.9x7.8%JP¥2.2t
4768 Otsuka
26.9x6.4%JP¥1.3t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4768 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the peer average (25.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4768's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP IT Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.7%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.7%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4768 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the JP IT industry average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4768's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4768 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.4x
Fair PE Ratio29x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4768 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4768 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,542.00
JP¥3,759.17
+6.1%
8.5%JP¥4,200.00JP¥3,200.00n/a12
Sep ’25JP¥3,466.00
JP¥3,676.67
+6.1%
7.4%JP¥4,090.00JP¥3,200.00n/a12
Aug ’25JP¥3,251.00
JP¥3,543.33
+9.0%
8.2%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,900.00n/a12
Jul ’25JP¥3,109.00
JP¥3,505.83
+12.8%
7.7%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,900.00n/a12
Jun ’25JP¥2,981.00
JP¥3,570.42
+19.8%
8.4%JP¥3,925.00JP¥2,900.00n/a12
May ’25JP¥2,923.50
JP¥3,600.00
+23.1%
8.1%JP¥4,050.00JP¥3,075.00n/a12
Apr ’25JP¥3,148.00
JP¥3,590.91
+14.1%
8.4%JP¥4,050.00JP¥3,075.00n/a11
Mar ’25JP¥3,294.50
JP¥3,564.58
+8.2%
7.8%JP¥4,050.00JP¥3,075.00n/a12
Feb ’25JP¥3,109.00
JP¥3,418.33
+9.9%
11.2%JP¥4,150.00JP¥2,970.00n/a12
Jan ’25JP¥2,906.50
JP¥3,338.18
+14.9%
8.9%JP¥3,850.00JP¥2,970.00n/a11
Dec ’24JP¥3,020.50
JP¥3,329.09
+10.2%
8.7%JP¥3,850.00JP¥2,970.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥2,913.50
JP¥3,362.50
+15.4%
8.5%JP¥3,850.00JP¥2,950.00n/a12
Oct ’24JP¥3,166.00
JP¥3,400.00
+7.4%
8.4%JP¥3,850.00JP¥2,950.00n/a12
Sep ’24JP¥3,237.50
JP¥3,329.17
+2.8%
9.9%JP¥3,850.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥3,466.0012
Aug ’24JP¥2,939.50
JP¥2,957.69
+0.6%
11.4%JP¥3,450.00JP¥2,250.00JP¥3,251.0013
Jul ’24JP¥2,793.50
JP¥2,846.15
+1.9%
10.5%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,250.00JP¥3,109.0013
Jun ’24JP¥2,705.00
JP¥2,659.62
-1.7%
11.1%JP¥3,050.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,981.0013
May ’24JP¥2,487.50
JP¥2,621.15
+5.4%
12.3%JP¥3,050.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,923.5013
Apr ’24JP¥2,342.50
JP¥2,541.67
+8.5%
12.3%JP¥2,950.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥3,148.0012
Mar ’24JP¥2,302.50
JP¥2,524.58
+9.6%
12.3%JP¥2,950.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥3,294.5012
Feb ’24JP¥2,155.00
JP¥2,339.09
+8.5%
12.2%JP¥2,700.00JP¥1,835.00JP¥3,109.0011
Jan ’24JP¥2,077.50
JP¥2,375.45
+14.3%
11.9%JP¥2,700.00JP¥1,835.00JP¥2,906.5011
Dec ’23JP¥2,265.00
JP¥2,458.50
+8.5%
11.2%JP¥2,715.00JP¥1,835.00JP¥3,020.5010
Nov ’23JP¥2,245.00
JP¥2,425.45
+8.0%
9.8%JP¥2,715.00JP¥1,880.00JP¥2,913.5011
Oct ’23JP¥2,262.50
JP¥2,367.92
+4.7%
8.9%JP¥2,710.00JP¥1,880.00JP¥3,166.0012
Sep ’23JP¥2,205.00
JP¥2,351.25
+6.6%
9.2%JP¥2,710.00JP¥1,880.00JP¥3,237.5012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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