Otsuka Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Otsuka Corporation (TSE:4768) last week reported its latest half-yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Results overall were not great, with earnings of JP¥9.42 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit JP¥570b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Otsuka after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Otsuka

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Otsuka are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.06t in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 2.8% to JP¥133. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.06t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥132 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,548, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Otsuka, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,900 and the most bearish at JP¥2,900 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Otsuka's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.7% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Otsuka is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Otsuka. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Otsuka going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com