freee K.K.

TSE:4478 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥175.7b

freee K.K Valuation

Is 4478 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4478 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4478 (¥3000) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5914.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4478 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4478?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

4478 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-20.3x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 4478's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 4478 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.5x
4180 Appier Group
5.7x18.8%JP¥172.7b
2317 Systena
1.8x9.0%JP¥140.9b
3994 Money Forward
8.4x20.5%JP¥304.0b
3993 PKSHA Technology
6.1x20.2%JP¥98.7b
4478 freee K.K
6.9x18.4%JP¥175.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 4478 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4478's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.8%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.8%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 4478 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.9x) compared to the JP Software industry average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4478's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4478 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio6.9x
Fair PS Ratio8.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 4478 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4478 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,000.00
JP¥3,065.00
+2.2%
24.6%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥2,366.00
JP¥3,085.00
+30.4%
26.3%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥2,375.00
JP¥3,085.00
+29.9%
26.3%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Jun ’25JP¥2,498.00
JP¥3,494.44
+39.9%
26.1%JP¥4,800.00JP¥2,000.00n/a9
May ’25JP¥2,886.00
JP¥3,427.78
+18.8%
31.4%JP¥4,800.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Apr ’25JP¥3,470.00
JP¥3,427.78
-1.2%
31.4%JP¥4,800.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥3,745.00
JP¥2,872.22
-23.3%
22.7%JP¥3,450.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥2,756.00
JP¥2,972.22
+7.8%
24.3%JP¥3,600.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Jan ’25JP¥3,055.00
JP¥2,961.11
-3.1%
24.6%JP¥3,700.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Dec ’24JP¥3,350.00
JP¥2,985.00
-10.9%
23.3%JP¥3,700.00JP¥1,100.00n/a10
Nov ’24JP¥2,571.00
JP¥3,050.00
+18.6%
24.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥1,100.00n/a11
Oct ’24JP¥2,972.00
JP¥3,054.55
+2.8%
24.0%JP¥3,900.00JP¥1,100.00n/a11
Sep ’24JP¥2,972.00
JP¥3,136.36
+5.5%
23.9%JP¥3,900.00JP¥1,100.00n/a11
Aug ’24JP¥3,190.00
JP¥3,345.45
+4.9%
23.7%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,366.0011
Jul ’24JP¥3,255.00
JP¥3,390.91
+4.2%
24.0%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,375.0011
Jun ’24JP¥3,185.00
JP¥3,354.55
+5.3%
24.1%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,498.0011
May ’24JP¥3,800.00
JP¥3,125.00
-17.8%
27.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,886.0010
Apr ’24JP¥3,370.00
JP¥3,131.82
-7.1%
26.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,470.0011
Mar ’24JP¥3,190.00
JP¥3,131.82
-1.8%
26.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,745.0011
Feb ’24JP¥3,545.00
JP¥3,063.64
-13.6%
25.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,756.0011
Jan ’24JP¥2,928.00
JP¥3,063.64
+4.6%
25.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,055.0011
Dec ’23JP¥3,370.00
JP¥3,027.27
-10.2%
26.3%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,350.0011
Nov ’23JP¥2,892.00
JP¥2,935.00
+1.5%
24.7%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,571.0012
Oct ’23JP¥2,485.00
JP¥3,010.00
+21.1%
26.0%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,972.0012
Sep ’23JP¥2,868.00
JP¥3,247.27
+13.2%
37.1%JP¥6,200.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,972.0011
Aug ’23JP¥3,280.00
JP¥3,745.45
+14.2%
30.0%JP¥6,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥3,190.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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