Ricksoft Co., Ltd. (TSE:4429) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 28% Price Plummet

The Ricksoft Co., Ltd. (TSE:4429) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 28%. Longer-term shareholders would now have taken a real hit with the stock declining 8.3% in the last year.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Ricksoft may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.4x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For instance, Ricksoft's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Ricksoft

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Ricksoft, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Ricksoft's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Ricksoft's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 29%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 39% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 9.8% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Ricksoft is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Ricksoft's very lofty P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Ricksoft revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Ricksoft (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us).

You might be able to find a better investment than Ricksoft. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com