Earnings Report: Appier Group, Inc. Missed Revenue Estimates By 5.1%

It's been a mediocre week for Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to JP¥1,021 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues came in 5.1% below expectations, at JP¥11b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥28.70 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Appier Group from six analysts is for revenues of JP¥56.6b in 2026. If met, it would imply a huge 40% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 77% to JP¥58.28. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥56.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥57.85 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Appier Group

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,104, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Appier Group at JP¥3,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,620. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 31% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 30% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that Appier Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Appier Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Appier Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Appier Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.