User Local, Inc.'s (TSE:3984) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

User Local, Inc. (TSE:3984) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 20% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, User Local's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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User Local has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for User Local

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on User Local's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For User Local?

User Local's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 17% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 31% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

It's interesting to note that the rest of the market is similarly expected to grow by 9.7% over the next year, which is fairly even with the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that User Local's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends would weigh down the share price eventually.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has got User Local's P/E rushing to great heights as well. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of User Local revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look similar to current market expectations. When we see average earnings with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for User Local with six simple checks.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than User Local. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.