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3962

Change TSE:3962 Stock Report

Last Price

JP¥2.17k

Market Cap

JP¥157.0b

7D

0.05%

1Y

-4.0%

Updated

14 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
3962 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance1/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends0/6

3962 Stock Overview

Change Inc. provides IT human resources development training services in Japan.

Change Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Change
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceJP¥2,171.00
52 Week HighJP¥2,557.00
52 Week LowJP¥1,303.00
Beta0.81
1 Month Change7.26%
3 Month Change26.07%
1 Year Change-4.02%
3 Year Change372.21%
5 Year Change360.69%
Change since IPO1,158.55%

Recent News & Updates

Shareholder Returns

3962JP ITJP Market
7D0.05%-0.8%1.2%
1Y-4.0%-0.4%-0.2%

Return vs Industry: 3962 underperformed the JP IT industry which returned -0.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 3962 underperformed the JP Market which returned -0.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 3962's price volatile compared to industry and market?
3962 volatility
3962 Average Weekly Movement7.6%
IT Industry Average Movement4.8%
Market Average Movement3.8%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market7.8%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market2.0%

Stable Share Price: 3962 is more volatile than 75% of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 3962's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of JP stocks.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2003328Hiroshi Fukudomehttps://www.change-jp.com

Change Inc. provides IT human resources development training services in Japan. It offers training services utilizing libraries and basic technologies of various algorithms, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, Internet of Things, voice internet, mobility, big data, cloud, cyber security, and new-IT transformation projects. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Change Fundamentals Summary

How do Change's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
3962 fundamental statistics
Market CapJP¥157.04b
Earnings (TTM)JP¥3.73b
Revenue (TTM)JP¥15.53b

42.1x

P/E Ratio

10.1x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
3962 income statement (TTM)
RevenueJP¥15.53b
Cost of RevenueJP¥4.38b
Gross ProfitJP¥11.15b
Other ExpensesJP¥7.42b
EarningsJP¥3.73b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 15, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)51.56
Gross Margin71.82%
Net Profit Margin24.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio4.1%

How did 3962 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.3%

Current Dividend Yield

9%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 3962 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3962?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

3962 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA22.3x
PEG Ratio2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3962's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

3962 PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for 3962 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.1x
4722 Future
19.3x-3.4%JP¥158.3b
9682 DTS
19.6x4.7%JP¥154.6b
4819 Digital Garage
5.4x-11.1%JP¥186.4b
9759 NSD
24x7.3%JP¥192.5b
3962 Change
42.1x21.4%JP¥157.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3962 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.1x) compared to the peer average (17.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3962's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP IT Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3962 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.1x) compared to the JP IT industry average (18.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3962's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3962 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.1x
Fair PE Ratio27x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3962 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3962 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3962 (¥2171) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3421.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3962 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is Change forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


21.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 3962's forecast earnings growth (21.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.04%).

Earnings vs Market: 3962's earnings (21.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the JP market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 3962's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 3962's revenue (19.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the JP market (4.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 3962's revenue (19.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 3962's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21%)


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Past Performance

How has Change performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-14.8%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 3962 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 3962's current net profit margins (24%) are lower than last year (29.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if 3962's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 3962's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 3962 had negative earnings growth (-14.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the IT industry average (17.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: 3962's Return on Equity (10.7%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Change's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 3962's short term assets (¥35.7B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥5.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 3962's short term assets (¥35.7B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥1.2B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 3962 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if 3962's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 3962's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (301.2%).

Interest Coverage: 3962's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (145.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Change current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


0.32%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 3962's dividend (0.32%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (1.63%).

High Dividend: 3962's dividend (0.32%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (3.59%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 3962 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: 3962 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: 3962 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: 3962 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.7yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Hiroshi Fukudome (46 yo)

6.67yrs

Tenure

Mr. Hiroshi Fukudome serves as Executive Officer and President at Change Inc. He served as an Executive President of Change Inc. Mr. Fukudome served as Chief of Research & Development Unit at Change Inc. s...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 3962's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.7 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: 3962's board of directors are considered experienced (6.6 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Change Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Change Inc.
  • Ticker: 3962
  • Exchange: TSE
  • Founded: 2003
  • Industry: IT Consulting and Other Services
  • Sector: Software
  • Implied Market Cap: JP¥157.042b
  • Shares outstanding: 72.34m
  • Website: https://www.change-jp.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Change Inc.
  • Tokyu REIT Toranomon Building
  • 6th Floor
  • Tokyo
  • 105-0001
  • Japan

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/14 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2022/03/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.