Estimating The Fair Value Of CELSYS, Inc. (TSE:3663)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for CELSYS is JP¥1,147 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• CELSYS' JP¥1,210 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• CELSYS' peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -40%

How far off is CELSYS, Inc. (TSE:3663) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for CELSYS

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥1.53b	JP¥1.62b	JP¥1.69b	JP¥1.74b	JP¥1.78b	JP¥1.81b	JP¥1.83b	JP¥1.85b	JP¥1.86b	JP¥1.87b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 8.27%	Est @ 5.86%	Est @ 4.18%	Est @ 3.01%	Est @ 2.18%	Est @ 1.61%	Est @ 1.20%	Est @ 0.92%	Est @ 0.72%	Est @ 0.58%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.2%	JP¥1.5k	JP¥1.5k	JP¥1.5k	JP¥1.4k	JP¥1.4k	JP¥1.3k	JP¥1.3k	JP¥1.2k	JP¥1.2k	JP¥1.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥13b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥1.9b× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (5.2%– 0.3%) = JP¥38b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥38b÷ ( 1 + 5.2%)¹⁰= JP¥23b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is JP¥36b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of JP¥1.2k, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CELSYS as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.001. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For CELSYS, there are three pertinent factors you should further research:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with CELSYS , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.