SCREEN Holdings (TSE:7735): Evaluating Valuation After a 52% Share Price Surge

SCREEN Holdings (TSE:7735) has been on investors' radar lately, thanks to its share price performance and steady financial growth in recent months. The company’s shares have posted noticeable gains, which has fueled interest in its long-term prospects.

See our latest analysis for SCREEN Holdings.

Momentum has been building rapidly for SCREEN Holdings, with its share price climbing over 52% so far this year and an impressive 50.7% total shareholder return over the past 12 months. This follows several recent industry tailwinds and continued confidence in the business's earnings outlook, which has left the stock firmly on investors' watchlists for both the near and longer term.

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Yet with SCREEN Holdings trading close to analyst targets after such a strong run, the key question becomes whether its recent gains signal future potential or if any upside from its robust growth is already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.8% Overvalued

SCREEN Holdings closed at ¥14,685, which sits above the most popular narrative's fair value estimate of ¥14,287. The narrative points to robust earnings drivers but signals that the current price might be running ahead of fundamentals.

SCREEN Holdings is positioned to benefit from imminent investment cycles in AI-related semiconductor applications. Management highlights robust demand for leading-edge nodes in foundry and memory (notably DRAM for AI servers). This is expected to drive a recovery in wafer processing equipment sales and bolster top-line revenue over the coming quarters and into FY2026.

Read the complete narrative.

What are the real numbers behind this price? Analysts are betting on a growth wave, margin shifts, and a bold future profit multiple. Curious which aggressive assumptions power this premium valuation? Uncover the story and see what’s fueling the Street’s latest projections.

Result: Fair Value of ¥14,287 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy reliance on China and increased competition from domestic equipment makers could affect SCREEN Holdings' growth and margin assumptions in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this SCREEN Holdings narrative.

Another View: Peer and Market Comparison

Looking beyond the fair value estimate, SCREEN Holdings currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15x. This is much lower than the Semiconductor industry average of 19.9x and far below the peer average of 36.3x. It is also below its own fair ratio of 25x. Such a discount points to potential value. Does the market truly underestimate the company’s future, or is this just the flip side of those bullish growth assumptions?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own SCREEN Holdings Narrative

If you want to challenge the prevailing view or simply dig into the numbers for yourself, shaping your own perspective takes only a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your SCREEN Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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