Lasertec Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Lasertec Corporation (TSE:6920) just released its annual report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of JP¥214b arriving 4.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were JP¥655, 8.0% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Lasertec

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Lasertec from 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥260.8b in 2025. If met, it would imply a sizeable 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 34% to JP¥877. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥260.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥897 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥36,569, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lasertec at JP¥50,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥23,000. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Lasertec's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lasertec's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 40% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Lasertec is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lasertec. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥36,569, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lasertec. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Lasertec analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Lasertec that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.