Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 31
Now 29% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 31% to JP¥3,005. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,329, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 29%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 36% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 274% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 29
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥2,774, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 31% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,402 per share. Announcement • Jul 22
Optorun(Shanghai)Co., Ltd. and Optorun Semiconductor System Corporation Announces Executive Changes, Effective August 31, 2026 Optorun Co., Ltd. held a meeting of the Board of Directors on July 22, 2026, and resolved the following changes in its executive officers. Gangzheng Li was appointed as Executive Officer and General Manager of R&D Center. Gangzheng Li previously served as CTO, OPTORUN (SHANGHAI) CO., LTD. and CTO, Optorun Semiconductor System Corporation. Lei Rong retired from the position of Executive Officer, Optorun Semiconductor System Corporation and CEO, Optorun USA Inc. Zhifei Huang was appointed as Executive Officer and General Manager, OPTORUN (SHANGHAI) CO., LTD. Zhifei Huang previously served as General Manager, Optorun Semiconductor System Corporation and Executive Officer and General Manager, OPTORUN (SHANGHAI) CO., LTD. The effective date for these changes is August 31, 2026. New Risk • Jul 17
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings. Payout ratio: 104% Dividend yield: 1.8% This is considered a minor risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings growth slows or earnings fall, then there may not be enough earnings to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. However, this risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by cash flows. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.9% average weekly change). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (104% payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.3% net profit margin). Announcement • Jun 23
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 07, 2026 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Aug 07, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Jun 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥28.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 June 2026. Payment date: 08 September 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.7%). Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: JP¥2.06 loss per share (down from JP¥19.33 profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥6.97b (down 12% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥82.0m (down 110% from profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 17%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥4,695, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34x. Average forward P/E is 21x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 150% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥6,106 per share. Announcement • Apr 24
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 13, 2026 Declared Dividend • Apr 11
Final dividend of JP¥28.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥28.00. Ex-date: 29th June 2026 Payment date: 8th September 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (74% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.7% per year over the past 8 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 117% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥3,175, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x. Average forward P/E is 21x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 63% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 33% After last week's 33% share price gain to JP¥2,826, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 43% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥73.29 (down from JP¥145 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥33.9b (up 4.5% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥2.96b (down 53% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 8.7% (down from 20% in FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Feb 13
Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 26, 2026 Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 26, 2026. Announcement • Dec 23
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2026 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Feb 13, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥27.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2025. Payment date: 26 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 73% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.2%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 19
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.8% to JP¥1,671. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,093, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 22%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 33% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 127% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Nov 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 9.6% Last year net profit margin: 18% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (9.6% net profit margin). New Risk • Nov 12
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Sep 10
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 11, 2025 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 11, 2025 Declared Dividend • Sep 09
First half dividend of JP¥27.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥27.00. Ex-date: 29th December 2025 Payment date: 26th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (52% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.2% per year over the past 8 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 99% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥7.41 (up from JP¥2.50 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥5.94b (up 11% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥295.6m (up JP¥405.6m from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.0% (up from net loss in 2Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 14%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 47%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year. Announcement • Jun 26
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 08, 2025 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 08, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Jun 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥27.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 June 2025. Payment date: 09 September 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 58% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (4.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Declared Dividend • May 18
Dividend increased to JP¥27.00 Dividend of JP¥27.00 is 3.8% higher than last year. Ex-date: 27th June 2025 Payment date: 9th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (58% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (117% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.7% per year over the past 7 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 94% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥19.32 (down from JP¥74.93 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.91b (down 30% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥809.0m (down 75% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 10% (down from 29% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 58%. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. New Risk • Apr 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (117% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.6% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥1,338, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 27% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥145 (up from JP¥106 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥32.4b (down 12% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥6.35b (up 37% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 20% (up from 13% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.2% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year. Announcement • Mar 22
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 13, 2025 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 13, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥145 (up from JP¥106 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥32.4b (down 12% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥6.35b (up 37% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 20% (up from 13% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.7% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year. Announcement • Feb 15
Optorun Co.,Ltd. (TSE:6235) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,500,100 shares, representing 5.64% for ¥4,145.17 million. Optorun Co.,Ltd. (TSE:6235) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,500,100 shares, representing 5.64% for a total of ¥4,145.17 million. The purpose of repurchase program is to implement flexible capital policies in response to changes in the business environment, to improve capital efficiency, and to provide shareholder returns. The repurchase program is valid till April 30, 2025. As of February 14, 2025, the company had 44,358,000 shares outstanding . Announcement • Feb 14
Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025 Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025. Announcement • Jan 03
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Feb 14, 2025 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Feb 14, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥26.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 December 2024. Payment date: 25 March 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥51.50 (vs JP¥14.38 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥51.50 (up from JP¥14.38 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥8.51b (up 6.3% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥2.27b (up 261% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 27% (up from 7.8% in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year. Announcement • Sep 25
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 12, 2024 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 12, 2024 Price Target Changed • Aug 21
Price target increased by 18% to JP¥2,600 Up from JP¥2,200, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 43% above last closing price of JP¥1,817. Stock is down 2.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥159 for next year compared to JP¥106 last year. Announcement • Aug 11
Optorun Co.,Ltd. (TSE:6235) announces an Equity Buyback for 3,400,000 shares, representing 7.72% for ¥5,000 million. Optorun Co.,Ltd. (TSE:6235) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 3,400,000 shares, representing 7.72% of its total shares outstanding excluding treasury shares, for a total of ¥5,000 million. The purpose of repurchase program is to implement flexible capital policies in response to changes in the business environment, to improve capital efficiency, and to provide shareholder returns. The repurchase program is valid till December 31, 2024. As of June 30, 2024, the company had 44,016,289 shares outstanding excluding treasury shares and had 341,711 shares in treasury. New Risk • Aug 05
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.6% average weekly change). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 175x cash flows per share). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 25% After last week's 25% share price decline to JP¥1,466, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥683 per share. Announcement • Jun 27
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 08, 2024 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Aug 08, 2024 Board Change • Apr 03
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Shimaoka Mikuko was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Mar 28
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 13, 2024 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 13, 2024 Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥106 (down from JP¥159 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥36.8b (up 7.3% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥4.63b (down 33% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 13% (down from 20% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Feb 15
Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 22, 2024 Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 22, 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥106 (down from JP¥159 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥36.8b (up 7.3% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥4.63b (down 33% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 13% (down from 20% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 19
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.3% to JP¥1,732. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,424, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 2.8% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 47% in the next 2 years. Price Target Changed • Jan 10
Price target decreased by 21% to JP¥2,200 Down from JP¥2,800, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of JP¥1,650. Stock is down 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥152 for next year compared to JP¥159 last year. Announcement • Dec 28
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 13, 2024 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 13, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥50.00 per share at 3.0% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 December 2023. Payment date: 29 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 42% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 3.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.2%). New Risk • Nov 17
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (296% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.5% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (13% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥14.38 (down from JP¥67.81 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥8.01b (down 29% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥628.0m (down 79% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 26% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 19%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Aug 14
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 35% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (35% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (295% cash payout ratio). New Risk • Aug 11
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Aug 10
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥47.42 (down from JP¥53.49 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥11.9b (up 41% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥2.07b (down 11% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 17% (down from 28% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 26%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 50%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jun 30
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 09, 2023 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 09, 2023 Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥32.22 (up from JP¥13.93 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥9.06b (up 77% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.40b (up 133% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 16% (up from 12% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 40%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 123%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥159 (up from JP¥147 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥34.3b (up 11% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥6.89b (up 8.8% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 20% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 4% per year. Announcement • Feb 15
Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 28, 2023 Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 28, 2023. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥159 (up from JP¥147 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥34.3b (up 11% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥6.89b (up 8.8% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 20% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 14
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥1,982, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,950 per share. Announcement • Jan 07
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 13, 2023 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 13, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥50.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2022. Payment date: 30 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% and the cash payout ratio is 78%. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 11 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (8 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Price Target Changed • Nov 13
Price target increased to JP¥2,772 Up from JP¥2,483, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥2,667. Stock is up 17% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥137 for next year compared to JP¥147 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥67.81 (up from JP¥41.47 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥11.3b (up 60% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥2.94b (up 64% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 26% (in line with 3Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 24%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 154%. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year. Announcement • Sep 24
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Nov 10, 2022 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2022 results on Nov 10, 2022 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 10
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from JP¥113 to JP¥126. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥31.6b. Net income forecast to shrink 3.8% next year vs 6.3% growth forecast for Semiconductor industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥2,650 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.6% to JP¥2,326 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Aug 15
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 21%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,936, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 39% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 9.3% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 12
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 25% share price gain to JP¥2,395, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 15% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,946 per share. Price Target Changed • Aug 10
Price target decreased to JP¥2,483 Down from JP¥2,750, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥2,419. Stock is up 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥108 for next year compared to JP¥147 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥53.49 (up from JP¥29.79 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥8.39b (up 4.0% from 2Q 2021). Net income: JP¥2.32b (up 81% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 28% (up from 16% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 101%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 21%, compared to a 22% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year. Announcement • Jun 24
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q2, 2022 Results on Aug 05, 2022 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2022 results on Aug 05, 2022 Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥13.93 (down from JP¥33.76 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥5.12b (down 26% from 1Q 2021). Net income: JP¥602.0m (down 59% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 12% (down from 21% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 32%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 50%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 17%, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buying Opportunity • May 02
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 20%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,345, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 13%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.0% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 7.0% per annum over the same time period. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 11 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (8 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Apr 08
Optorun Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2022 Results on May 12, 2022 Optorun Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2022 results on May 12, 2022 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥1,868, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Semiconductor industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 3.1% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,314 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥33.5b to JP¥32.6b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥147 per share to JP¥131 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 11% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Semiconductor industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥2,788 to JP¥2,538. Share price was steady at JP¥1,854 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 01
Price target decreased to JP¥2,538 Down from JP¥2,788, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of JP¥1,854. Stock is down 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥131 for next year compared to JP¥147 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: JP¥147 (down from JP¥159 in FY 2020). Revenue: JP¥30.9b (down 18% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥6.33b (down 6.9% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 21% (up from 18% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 11%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.5%, compared to a 20% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 16
Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 29, 2022 Optorun Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 29, 2022.