Kioxia Holdings Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Kioxia Holdings Corporation (TSE:285A), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its interim results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥791b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 20%, coming in at just JP¥75.36 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Kioxia Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.90t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 84% to JP¥530. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.83t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥421 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Kioxia Holdings' future following the latest results, with a massive increase in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

See our latest analysis for Kioxia Holdings

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 35% to JP¥11,083per share. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Kioxia Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥23,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,500. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kioxia Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Kioxia Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 43% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Kioxia Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kioxia Holdings' earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Kioxia Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kioxia Holdings (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.