The Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9843) Third-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9843) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to JP¥16,285 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥259b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.8% to hit JP¥262 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Nitori Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nitori Holdings from nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥982.8b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 11% to JP¥865. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥988.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥878 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥19,279, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nitori Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥21,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥17,800. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Nitori Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Nitori Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nitori Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nitori Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Nitori Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Nitori Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.