Earnings Beat: J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The interim results for J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. (TSE:3086) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were JP¥209b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥112, an impressive 63% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for J. Front Retailing

Following last week's earnings report, J. Front Retailing's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥431.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 31% to JP¥123 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥432.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥122 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,985, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values J. Front Retailing at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,700. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await J. Front Retailing shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that J. Front Retailing's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.2% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.5% per year. So although J. Front Retailing's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,985, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for J. Front Retailing going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for J. Front Retailing (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.