ASKUL Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in ASKUL Corporation (TSE:2678) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at JP¥1,632 following the release of its first-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥3.73, some 54% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥122b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ASKUL from nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥495.5b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 2.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 18% to JP¥72.02 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥495.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥70.80 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for ASKUL

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,556, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on ASKUL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,200 and the most bearish at JP¥1,300 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await ASKUL shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ASKUL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 3.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ASKUL.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ASKUL's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,556, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASKUL going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for ASKUL that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.