ASKUL Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that ASKUL Corporation (TSE:2678) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to JP¥1,606 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥25.02, some 28% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥121b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for ASKUL

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ASKUL's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥500.4b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 14% to JP¥110. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥503.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥115 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.7% to JP¥1,751, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ASKUL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,200 and the most bearish at JP¥1,450 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of ASKUL'shistorical trends, as the 3.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 3.9% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that ASKUL is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ASKUL. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ASKUL's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASKUL going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ASKUL you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.