Frontier Real Estate Investment Corporation

TSE:8964 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥215.9b

Frontier Real Estate Investment Valuation

Is 8964 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8964 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8964 (¥399000) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥496366.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8964 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8964?

Key metric: As 8964 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8964. This is calculated by dividing 8964's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8964's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.8x
EarningsJP¥12.13b
Market CapJP¥215.86b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8964's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8964 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.5x
3292 AEON REIT Investment
19.8x1.3%JP¥268.5b
3453 Kenedix Retail REIT
21xn/aJP¥161.4b
8968 Fukuoka REIT
20.8x6.2%JP¥125.2b
8953 Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment
20.6x7.8%JP¥652.4b
8964 Frontier Real Estate Investment
17.8x-3.0%JP¥215.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8964 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8964's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Retail REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
8964 17.8xIndustry Avg. 14.1xNo. of Companies4PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8964 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the Asian Retail REITs industry average (14x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8964's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8964 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.8x
Fair PE Ratio20.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8964 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8964 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥399,000.00
JP¥464,000.00
+16.3%
3.8%JP¥495,000.00JP¥441,000.00n/a5
Nov ’25JP¥404,500.00
JP¥467,800.00
+15.6%
3.0%JP¥495,000.00JP¥455,000.00n/a5
Oct ’25JP¥422,500.00
JP¥467,800.00
+10.7%
3.0%JP¥495,000.00JP¥455,000.00n/a5
Sep ’25JP¥428,500.00
JP¥460,000.00
+7.4%
4.1%JP¥495,000.00JP¥436,000.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥431,000.00
JP¥453,333.33
+5.2%
4.5%JP¥495,000.00JP¥435,000.00n/a6
Jul ’25JP¥433,500.00
JP¥466,166.67
+7.5%
6.2%JP¥520,000.00JP¥436,000.00n/a6
Jun ’25JP¥447,500.00
JP¥466,166.67
+4.2%
6.2%JP¥520,000.00JP¥436,000.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥461,000.00
JP¥466,166.67
+1.1%
6.2%JP¥520,000.00JP¥436,000.00n/a6
Apr ’25JP¥457,500.00
JP¥466,166.67
+1.9%
6.2%JP¥520,000.00JP¥436,000.00n/a6
Mar ’25JP¥425,500.00
JP¥472,200.00
+11.0%
5.9%JP¥520,000.00JP¥445,000.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥430,500.00
JP¥500,000.00
+16.1%
2.5%JP¥520,000.00JP¥490,000.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥433,000.00
JP¥501,000.00
+15.7%
2.4%JP¥520,000.00JP¥490,000.00n/a5
Dec ’24JP¥447,500.00
JP¥506,333.33
+13.1%
3.2%JP¥533,000.00JP¥490,000.00n/a6
Nov ’24JP¥452,500.00
JP¥506,333.33
+11.9%
3.2%JP¥533,000.00JP¥490,000.00JP¥404,500.006
Oct ’24JP¥457,500.00
JP¥506,333.33
+10.7%
3.2%JP¥533,000.00JP¥490,000.00JP¥422,500.006
Sep ’24JP¥471,000.00
JP¥506,333.33
+7.5%
3.2%JP¥533,000.00JP¥490,000.00JP¥428,500.006
Aug ’24JP¥467,500.00
JP¥514,666.67
+10.1%
3.0%JP¥545,000.00JP¥498,000.00JP¥431,000.006
Jul ’24JP¥468,000.00
JP¥506,800.00
+8.3%
1.8%JP¥520,000.00JP¥498,000.00JP¥433,500.005
Jun ’24JP¥483,000.00
JP¥506,800.00
+4.9%
1.8%JP¥520,000.00JP¥498,000.00JP¥447,500.005
May ’24JP¥489,000.00
JP¥506,800.00
+3.6%
1.8%JP¥520,000.00JP¥498,000.00JP¥461,000.005
Apr ’24JP¥475,000.00
JP¥543,800.00
+14.5%
5.1%JP¥580,000.00JP¥515,000.00JP¥457,500.005
Mar ’24JP¥494,000.00
JP¥546,166.67
+10.6%
4.7%JP¥580,000.00JP¥515,000.00JP¥425,500.006
Feb ’24JP¥502,000.00
JP¥553,333.33
+10.2%
4.8%JP¥598,000.00JP¥520,000.00JP¥430,500.006
Jan ’24JP¥512,000.00
JP¥553,500.00
+8.1%
5.2%JP¥598,000.00JP¥515,000.00JP¥433,000.006
Dec ’23JP¥518,000.00
JP¥553,500.00
+6.9%
5.2%JP¥598,000.00JP¥515,000.00JP¥447,500.006
Nov ’23JP¥531,000.00
JP¥553,500.00
+4.2%
5.2%JP¥598,000.00JP¥515,000.00JP¥452,500.006

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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