ORIX JREIT Inc.

TSE:8954 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥444.9b

ORIX JREIT Valuation

Is 8954 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8954 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8954 (¥160200) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥211337.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8954 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8954?

Key metric: As 8954 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8954. This is calculated by dividing 8954's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8954's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.2x
EarningsJP¥23.05b
Market CapJP¥444.91b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8954's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8954 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
8955 Japan Prime Realty Investment
21.2x2.5%JP¥318.6b
8952 Japan Real Estate Investment
20.3x-8.0%JP¥766.9b
3234 Mori Hills REIT Investment
18.4x-3.4%JP¥232.6b
8976 Daiwa Office Investment
21.8x5.4%JP¥273.0b
8954 ORIX JREIT
19.2xn/aJP¥444.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8954 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8954's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Office REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
8954 19.2xIndustry Avg. 17.1xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8954 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the Asian Office REITs industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8954's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8954 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 8954's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8954 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥160,100.00
JP¥178,857.14
+11.7%
7.0%JP¥200,000.00JP¥156,000.00n/a7
Dec ’25JP¥166,700.00
JP¥178,571.43
+7.1%
7.1%JP¥200,000.00JP¥156,000.00n/a7
Nov ’25JP¥158,200.00
JP¥176,142.86
+11.3%
5.2%JP¥185,000.00JP¥156,000.00n/a7
Oct ’25JP¥153,500.00
JP¥178,000.00
+16.0%
4.0%JP¥188,000.00JP¥168,000.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥151,700.00
JP¥178,000.00
+17.3%
4.0%JP¥188,000.00JP¥168,000.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥154,600.00
JP¥178,000.00
+15.1%
4.0%JP¥188,000.00JP¥168,000.00n/a6
Jul ’25JP¥157,600.00
JP¥183,833.33
+16.6%
5.6%JP¥203,000.00JP¥171,000.00n/a6
Jun ’25JP¥159,400.00
JP¥183,833.33
+15.3%
5.6%JP¥203,000.00JP¥171,000.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥166,600.00
JP¥181,857.14
+9.2%
6.1%JP¥203,000.00JP¥169,000.00n/a7
Apr ’25JP¥163,600.00
JP¥186,428.57
+14.0%
8.0%JP¥210,000.00JP¥169,000.00n/a7
Mar ’25JP¥156,400.00
JP¥189,333.33
+21.1%
7.4%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00n/a6
Feb ’25JP¥168,700.00
JP¥189,333.33
+12.2%
7.4%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00n/a6
Jan ’25JP¥166,500.00
JP¥192,000.00
+15.3%
6.4%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00n/a6
Dec ’24JP¥170,000.00
JP¥189,285.71
+11.3%
7.0%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥166,700.007
Nov ’24JP¥176,500.00
JP¥192,571.43
+9.1%
6.0%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥158,200.007
Oct ’24JP¥179,400.00
JP¥192,428.57
+7.3%
6.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥153,500.007
Sep ’24JP¥184,200.00
JP¥192,428.57
+4.5%
6.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥151,700.007
Aug ’24JP¥179,600.00
JP¥192,428.57
+7.1%
6.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥154,600.007
Jul ’24JP¥177,400.00
JP¥192,000.00
+8.2%
6.5%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥157,600.007
Jun ’24JP¥176,300.00
JP¥192,714.29
+9.3%
6.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥159,400.007
May ’24JP¥176,000.00
JP¥192,714.29
+9.5%
6.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥171,000.00JP¥166,600.007
Apr ’24JP¥168,000.00
JP¥199,571.43
+18.8%
2.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥190,000.00JP¥163,600.007
Mar ’24JP¥179,600.00
JP¥199,571.43
+11.1%
2.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥190,000.00JP¥156,400.007
Feb ’24JP¥180,400.00
JP¥199,571.43
+10.6%
2.7%JP¥210,000.00JP¥190,000.00JP¥168,700.007
Jan ’24JP¥186,500.00
JP¥199,857.14
+7.2%
2.8%JP¥210,000.00JP¥190,000.00JP¥166,500.007
Dec ’23JP¥189,300.00
JP¥199,857.14
+5.6%
2.8%JP¥210,000.00JP¥190,000.00JP¥170,000.007

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 15:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/08/31
Annual Earnings2024/08/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ORIX JREIT Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 0 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Junichi TazawaBarclays
Toshiyuki AnegawaBofA Global Research
Yoshizumi KimuraCitigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.