Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd. (TSE:8804) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.9% to close at JP¥2,625 following the release of its third-quarter results. Results were mixed, with revenue coming in 46% at JP¥82b, yet statutory earnings came up 11% short, at JP¥18.50 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Tokyo Tatemono

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering Tokyo Tatemono, is for revenues of JP¥466.3b in 2025. This implies a measurable 6.3% reduction in Tokyo Tatemono's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥246, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥465.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥243 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥2,766, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tokyo Tatemono analyst has a price target of JP¥3,040 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,590. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Tokyo Tatemono is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Tokyo Tatemono's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tokyo Tatemono's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,766, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Tokyo Tatemono analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Tokyo Tatemono (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.