Ascot Corp. (TSE:3264) Stock Rockets 25% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Despite an already strong run, Ascot Corp. (TSE:3264) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25% in the last thirty days. Looking further back, the 12% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Since its price has surged higher, Ascot's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 38.9x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Ascot over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Ascot

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Ascot, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Ascot's Growth Trending?

Ascot's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 72%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 20% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.8% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Ascot's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Ascot's P/E?

The strong share price surge has got Ascot's P/E rushing to great heights as well. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Ascot currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Ascot (of which 3 are concerning!) you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Ascot's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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