Tsumura & Co. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Tsumura & Co. (TSE:4540), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥43b revenue coming in 4.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥58.16 missed the mark badly, arriving some 36% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tsumura from six analysts is for revenues of JP¥189.9b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 2.5% to JP¥334 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥190.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥340 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Tsumura

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,138, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tsumura analyst has a price target of JP¥5,630 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,300. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.0% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.9% annually. So although Tsumura is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,138, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tsumura. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Tsumura analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Tsumura you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.