Astellas Pharma Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

As you might know, Astellas Pharma Inc. (TSE:4503) just kicked off its latest half-yearly results with some very strong numbers. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥1.0t, some 9.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥82.44, 203% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Astellas Pharma's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.99t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 21% to JP¥84.10. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥2.01t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥90.06 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Astellas Pharma

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,753, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Astellas Pharma at JP¥2,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,300. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.7% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Astellas Pharma's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Astellas Pharma. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Astellas Pharma. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Astellas Pharma going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Astellas Pharma has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.