Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) last week released its latest interim, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥2.2t revenue coming in 3.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥71.57 missed the mark badly, arriving some 40% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Takeda Pharmaceutical's 16 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥4.49t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 540% to JP¥134. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥4.54t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥152 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,906, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Takeda Pharmaceutical analyst has a price target of JP¥5,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,300. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Takeda Pharmaceutical is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.0% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Takeda Pharmaceutical. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Takeda Pharmaceutical going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Takeda Pharmaceutical that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.