Earnings Miss: Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9684) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 5.7% to JP¥8,980. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥325b, although statutory earnings per share came in 17% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥203 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Square Enix Holdings' 13 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥324.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 32% to JP¥269. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥327.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥270 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Square Enix Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,616, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Square Enix Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥8,300 and the most bearish at JP¥4,370 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Square Enix Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 2.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Square Enix Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Square Enix Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Square Enix Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Square Enix Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.