Getting In Cheap On Toei Company, Ltd. (TSE:9605) Is Unlikely

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.7x Toei Company, Ltd. (TSE:9605) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Toei Company hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Toei Company

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Toei Company's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 27% decrease to the company's bottom line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 110% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.8% per year as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 11% each year, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that Toei Company is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Toei Company's P/E?

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Toei Company's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Toei Company has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Toei Company's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.