Lancers (TSE:4484) Is Posting Solid Earnings, But It Is Not All Good News

Solid profit numbers didn't seem to be enough to please Lancers, Inc.'s (TSE:4484) shareholders. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

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Zooming In On Lancers' Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to September 2025, Lancers had an accrual ratio of 0.40. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. In fact, it had free cash flow of JP¥95m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of JP¥172.0m. We note, however, that Lancers grew its free cash flow over the last year. Importantly, we note an unusual tax situation, which we discuss below, has impacted the accruals ratio. This would certainly have contributed to the weak cash conversion.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Lancers.

An Unusual Tax Situation

Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Lancers profited from a tax benefit which contributed JP¥66m to profit. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On Lancers' Profit Performance

Lancers' accrual ratio indicates weak cashflow relative to earnings, which perhaps arises in part from the tax benefit it received this year. If the tax benefit is not repeated, then profit would drop next year, all else being equal. Considering all this we'd argue Lancers' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Lancers.

Our examination of Lancers has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.