J-Stream Inc. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 5.2%

J-Stream Inc. (TSE:4308) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to JP¥344 in the week after its latest interim results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of JP¥12.00 per share roughly in line with what the analyst had forecast. Revenues of JP¥3.0b came in 5.2% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for J-Stream

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from J-Stream's one analyst is for revenues of JP¥11.7b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥16.10, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of JP¥11.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥20.10 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 28% to JP¥430, with the analyst clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of J-Stream'shistorical trends, as the 4.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 5.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that J-Stream is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for J-Stream. Fortunately, the analyst also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that J-Stream's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for J-Stream that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.