Neo Marketing Inc. (TSE:4196) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 27% Price Plummet

Neo Marketing Inc. (TSE:4196) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 27% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The last month has meant the stock is now only up 7.8% during the last year.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Neo Marketing's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.5x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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For instance, Neo Marketing's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Neo Marketing

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Neo Marketing's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Neo Marketing's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 66% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 51% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 11% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Neo Marketing's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Neo Marketing's P/E

Neo Marketing's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Neo Marketing currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Neo Marketing that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.