Mobcast Holdings Inc. (TSE:3664) Stock Rockets 42% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Despite an already strong run, Mobcast Holdings Inc. (TSE:3664) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 42% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 63% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Mobcast Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Entertainment industry in Japan, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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See our latest analysis for Mobcast Holdings

What Does Mobcast Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Mobcast Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Mobcast Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Mobcast Holdings?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Mobcast Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 30% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 31% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Mobcast Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Mobcast Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Mobcast Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Mobcast Holdings (2 are concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.