UACJ Corporation Just Missed EPS By 74%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that UACJ Corporation (TSE:5741) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to JP¥5,650 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of JP¥28.98 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit JP¥262b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, UACJ's six analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥1.03t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 69% to JP¥546. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.03t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥553 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for UACJ

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,118, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on UACJ, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,500 and the most bearish at JP¥4,600 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that UACJ's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than UACJ.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,118, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for UACJ going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for UACJ (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.