Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 15
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥3,085, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 55x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 67% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,467 per share. New Risk • May 12
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 20% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (20% operating cash flow to total debt). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Live News • May 10
Toho Titanium Set to Delist as JX Advanced Metals Takeover Reshapes Governance Toho Titanium plans to change its governance structure by June 18, 2026, shifting from a company with an Audit and Supervisory Committee to one with company auditors.
The company is preparing to become a wholly owned subsidiary of JX Advanced Metals through a share exchange that will result in its delisting.
Post-takeover, Toho Titanium intends to amend its corporate charter and introduce tighter share transfer controls while stating that operational independence and minority investor protections will be maintained.
For you as an investor, the key point is that Toho Titanium is on a defined path toward full integration into JX Advanced Metals, with its current listing status expected to end after the share exchange. The governance shift to a company auditor structure is described as a move to simplify oversight in a context where a single parent company holds all shares, rather than a broad public shareholder base.
The company is also emphasizing safeguards for minority investors through independent committee reviews and Board oversight on transactions with JX Advanced Metals. If you hold shares, the focus now is less on ongoing trading and more on understanding the terms of the share exchange, the timetable to delisting, and how the new governance setup might influence decision-making up to the completion of the takeover. Reported Earnings • May 09
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥40.00 (down from JP¥52.35 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥83.4b (down 6.3% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥2.85b (down 24% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 3.4% (down from 4.2% in FY 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 5.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 33% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Apr 22
Toho Titanium Company, Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 08, 2026 Toho Titanium Company, Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 08, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 02 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 60% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.5%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 23
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to JP¥2,358, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 45x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 9.2% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,532 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to JP¥2,291, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 44x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 14% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,455 per share. New Risk • Feb 13
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.9% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.9% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (84% net debt to equity). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.7% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.50 (vs JP¥31.33 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥18.50 (down from JP¥31.33 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥20.3b (down 7.9% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.32b (down 41% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 6.5% (down from 10% in 3Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 23
Now 25% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 13% to JP¥1,794. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,431, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 26%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 21% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Jan 22
Price target increased by 9.7% to JP¥1,700 Up from JP¥1,550, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,673. Stock is up 52% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥37.30 for next year compared to JP¥52.35 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 09
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to JP¥1,545, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 29x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 39% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥944 per share. Declared Dividend • Dec 12
First half dividend of JP¥9.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥9.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 2nd June 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 78% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Board Change • Dec 03
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Akio Kobayashi was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 19
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥93.9b to JP¥82.0b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥48.63 to JP¥33.70 per share. Net income forecast to grow 6.2% next year vs 7.5% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,550 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 9.1% to JP¥1,245 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5.55 (vs JP¥3.75 loss in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥5.55 (up from JP¥3.75 loss in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥18.9b (down 16% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥395.0m (up JP¥662.0m from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.1% (up from net loss in 2Q 2025). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 12 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 50% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥91.2b to JP¥93.9b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥61.17 to JP¥48.63 per share. Net income forecast to grow 53% next year vs 8.8% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,375 to JP¥1,550. Share price rose 6.9% to JP¥1,587 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 22
Price target increased by 12% to JP¥1,550 Up from JP¥1,385, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,587. Stock is up 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥48.63 for next year compared to JP¥52.35 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 06
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 50% to JP¥1,475. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,219, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 21% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Aug 02
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥4.27 (vs JP¥17.59 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥4.27 (down from JP¥17.59 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥22.1b (up 3.7% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥304.0m (down 76% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.4% (down from 5.9% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend increased to JP¥9.00 Dividend of JP¥9.00 is 13% higher than last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 12th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (32% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (19% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 55% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jun 21
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥52.35 (down from JP¥69.56 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥89.0b (up 14% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥3.73b (down 25% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (down from 6.3% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.2% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 17% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to JP¥1,296, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 45% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,358 per share. Announcement • Jun 10
Toho Titanium Company Limited Confirms the Suitability of Natural Rutile from Kasiya Rutile-Graphite Project for Manufacturing High-Specification Titanium Products Critical to Aerospace and Industrial Applications S Sovereign Metals Limited announced that one of Japan's premier titanium metal (sponge and ingot) producers, Toho Titanium Company Limited, has confirmed the suitability of natural rutile from Sovereign's Kasiya Rutile-Graphite Project for manufacturing high-specification titanium products critical to aerospace and industrial applications. Toho Titanium's analysis of a sample of rutile from Kasiya concluded that " it is of a quality that can be used without any issues". Kasiya's rutile surpassed the requirements for TiO2 grade (>95%), low or no deleterious elements, low radiation value, and suitable particle size distribution and density. Toho Titanium represents a cornerstone supplier in the global titanium value chain, with combined decades of expertise serving the world's most demanding aerospace and industrial manufacturers. Toho Titanium, together with Japan's other major titanium metal producer, Osaka Titanium Technologies Co. Ltd. (" Osaka Titanium"), account for over 15% of global titanium production capacity and over 60% of non-sanctioned, aerospace-grade titanium metal production (i.e. excluding China, which is not qualified to produce aerospace-grade titanium, and Russia). Toho Titanium occupies a critical position in titanium supply chains, supporting the aerospace industry across the United States, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific region. Recent geopolitical developments have intensified focus on secure titanium supply chains, creating unprecedented strategic opportunities and strengthening the strategic nature of Kasiya as a future supplier of high-grade titanium feedstock. Toho Titanium supplies the most demanding aerospace applications globally, such as Boeing and Airbus commercial aircraft. Confirmation that rutile meets Toho Titanium's exacting standards for high-specification titanium production validates position as a future cornerstone supplier to critical industries. With the world's largest known rutile deposit, Sovereign is uniquely positioned to capitalise on the intersection of resource security, aerospace supply chain realignment, and national defence priorities. Kasiya's exceptional scale and quality, combined with Malawi's stable jurisdiction, offers unparalleled exposure to one of the most strategic and rapidly growing mineral markets of time." Kasiya Rutile Suitable for all Major End-Use Markets Bulk scale metallurgical test work conducted by Allied Mineral Laboratories in Australia has previously confirmed that a premium-grade rutile product can be produced via a simple, conventional process flow sheet with no requirements for flotation or acid leaching. World-class specification rutile products were reported ranging from 95.0% to 97.2% TiO2 with low impurities and exceptional metallurgical recoveries of up to 100%. The premium chemical parameters and particle sizing (d 50 126 m, 8.6% <75 m m) of Kasiya's rutile indicate that the product is suitable for all major end-use markets. Specifically, Kasiya's rutile product specification makes it a suitable feedstock for superior, high-performance titanium metal products. Confirmation that Kasiya's rutile can be used by Toho Titanium establishes Sovereign Metals as a credible future supplier to the global titanium industry's most discerning customers. This technical endorsement, combined with Kasiya's unmatched scale and strategic location, positions Sovereign as a potential potential supplier to the global titanium industry. Major Estimate Revision • May 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥85.0b to JP¥87.5b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥76.60 to JP¥67.23 per share. Net income forecast to grow 29% next year vs 4.0% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,385 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.7% to JP¥1,084 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 09
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥52.35 (down from JP¥69.56 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥89.0b (up 14% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥3.73b (down 25% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (down from 6.3% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.0%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • May 08
Toho Titanium Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 19, 2025 Toho Titanium Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 19, 2025. New Risk • Apr 07
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.9% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.9% average weekly change). Minor Risk High level of debt (81% net debt to equity). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20% After last week's 20% share price decline to JP¥947, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 33% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,812 per share. Announcement • Mar 25
World Intec Co., Ltd. agreed to acquire 65% stake in Toho Technical Service Co.,Ltd. from Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. (TSE:5727). World Intec Co., Ltd. agreed to acquire 65% stake in Toho Technical Service Co.,Ltd. from Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. (TSE:5727) on March 24, 2025.
For the period ending March 31, 2024, Toho Technical Service Co.,Ltd. reported total revenue of ¥1.98 billion, EBIT of ¥88 million and net income of ¥59 million. As of March 31, 2024, Toho Technical Service Co.,Ltd. reported total assets of ¥2.32 billion and total common equity of ¥1.89 billion. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥8.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 03 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 32% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.1%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥1,141, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 16% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,388 per share. Announcement • Mar 01
Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 08, 2025 Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 08, 2025 Price Target Changed • Feb 21
Price target decreased by 9.2% to JP¥1,385 Down from JP¥1,525, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 42% above last closing price of JP¥976. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥54.13 for next year compared to JP¥69.56 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥93.9b to JP¥89.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥66.57 per share to JP¥53.40 per share. Net income forecast to grow 14% next year vs 5.3% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,525 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥1,012 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥31.33 (vs JP¥8.56 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥31.33 (up from JP¥8.56 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥22.0b (up 11% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥2.23b (up 266% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 10% (up from 3.1% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Dec 13
First half dividend of JP¥8.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥8.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 3rd June 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.6%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (47% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (153% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 9 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 89% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Nov 09
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 4.1% Last year net profit margin: 6.9% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.2% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.1% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥3.75 loss per share (vs JP¥20.84 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥3.75 loss per share (down from JP¥20.84 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥22.4b (up 9.4% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥267.0m (down 118% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥8.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 02 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.3%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 10
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥1,034, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 14% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,833 per share. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥17.59 (vs JP¥13.39 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥17.59 (up from JP¥13.39 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥21.4b (up 32% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.25b (up 31% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.9% (in line with 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Aug 05
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.3% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 28% After last week's 28% share price decline to JP¥989, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 13% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,806 per share. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥8.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥8.00. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 2nd December 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (34% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 17% per year over the past 9 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 64% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jun 25
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥69.56 (down from JP¥105 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥78.4b (down 2.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥4.95b (down 34% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.3% (down from 9.3% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 9.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 69% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Jun 05
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 1.7% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.7% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.3% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 05
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 21% to JP¥1,256. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,598, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 25% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 18% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • May 31
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.3% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 31
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥1,285, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 37% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,575 per share. Major Estimate Revision • May 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥79.87 to JP¥70.97 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥93.4b. Net income forecast to grow 2.3% next year vs 0.4% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,025 to JP¥1,775. Share price rose 9.3% to JP¥1,252 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 09
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥69.56 (down from JP¥105 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥78.4b (down 2.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥4.95b (down 34% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.3% (down from 9.3% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 9.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 69% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 28% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥116 to JP¥83.70 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥97.2b. Net income forecast to grow 8.9% next year vs 8.9% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,275 to JP¥2,025. Share price fell 7.0% to JP¥1,278 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥14.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 03 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.5%). Announcement • Mar 14
Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 08, 2024 Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 08, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jan 26
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥8.56 (vs JP¥11.75 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥8.56 (down from JP¥11.75 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥19.8b (up 1.3% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥609.0m (down 27% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.1% (down from 4.3% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 78% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 31% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥20.84 (vs JP¥35.37 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥20.84 (down from JP¥35.37 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥20.5b (up 8.9% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.48b (down 41% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.2% (down from 13% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 83% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 45% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 27
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 33% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥81.9b to JP¥88.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥47.09 to JP¥62.55 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 6.3% next year vs 6.8% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,500 to JP¥2,325. Share price rose 3.1% to JP¥1,875 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Oct 26
Price target decreased by 8.8% to JP¥2,325 Down from JP¥2,550, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 34% above last closing price of JP¥1,734. Stock is down 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥47.09 for next year compared to JP¥105 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥6.00 per share at 0.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 01 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥90.3b to JP¥86.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥77.43 per share to JP¥69.50 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 6.1% next year vs 7.3% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,647 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥1,966 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Aug 03
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 3.0%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,586, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 28% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 84%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.4% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 9.8% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.39 (vs JP¥28.37 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥13.39 (down from JP¥28.37 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥16.2b (down 20% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥953.0m (down 53% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.9% (down from 10% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 84% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 51% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥1,950, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 216% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥3,352 per share. Board Change • Jul 07
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Naomi Harada was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity.