Live News • May 17
Dowa Holdings Projects Higher Dividend Backed by Record Profits and Stake Sale Proceeds Dowa Holdings lifted its 2026 annual dividend forecast to ¥368 per share, supported in part by proceeds from a partial sale of its stake in Fujita Kanko Inc.
The higher dividend follows record fiscal 2025 profits, supported by metal prices and demand related to AI servers.
The company also announced a larger dividend and a share buyback plan alongside improved profitability in electronic materials and sales to information and communication sectors.
The combination of record profits, a higher dividend forecast and share buybacks points to a period where management is prioritising shareholder returns funded by both operating performance and asset sales.
Investors may want to consider how much of the recent strength is tied to metal price levels and AI-related demand, as a change in either could affect earnings and the sustainability of current capital return policies. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥1,050 (up from JP¥456 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥745.4b (up 9.8% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥62.5b (up 130% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 8.4% (up from 4.0% in FY 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 14%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 38% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 15
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2026 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2026. New Risk • May 15
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 9.7% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.7% average weekly change). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to JP¥12,060, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 200% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥5,084 per share. Price Target Changed • Mar 31
Price target increased by 7.2% to JP¥9,840 Up from JP¥9,183, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of JP¥8,735. Stock is up 88% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥917 for next year compared to JP¥456 last year. New Risk • Mar 23
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 9.1% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.1% average weekly change). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥318 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 15 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 41% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). In line with average of industry peers (2.5%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 03
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 40%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from JP¥717.2b to JP¥708.6b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥652 to JP¥911. Net income forecast to grow 109% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥7,469 to JP¥8,069. Share price rose 4.2% to JP¥11,030 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 02
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥11,805, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 182% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 27
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from JP¥717.2b to JP¥708.6b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥557 to JP¥631. Net income forecast to grow 91% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥7,469 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 14% to JP¥11,510 over the past week. Announcement • Feb 17
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 14, 2026 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 14, 2026 Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Third quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥83.06 (up from JP¥54.95 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥181.5b (up 10% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥4.95b (up 51% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.7% (up from 2.0% in 3Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 45%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jan 08
Dividend of JP¥183 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥183. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 13th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.3%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (44% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 7.4% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 52% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jan 07
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announces Annual dividend, payable on June 13, 2026 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced Annual dividend of JPY 183.0000 per share payable on June 13, 2026, ex-date on March 30, 2026 and record date on March 31, 2026. New Risk • Jan 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.5% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.1% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Dec 13
Price target increased by 7.9% to JP¥5,826 Up from JP¥5,397, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 14% below last closing price of JP¥6,736. Stock is up 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥517 for next year compared to JP¥456 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 10
Price target increased by 8.8% to JP¥5,669 Up from JP¥5,211, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 13% below last closing price of JP¥6,500. Stock is up 42% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥507 for next year compared to JP¥456 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 03
Price target increased by 8.0% to JP¥5,397 Up from JP¥4,997, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 11% below last closing price of JP¥6,042. Stock is up 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥494 for next year compared to JP¥456 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 19
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from JP¥681.2b to JP¥671.4b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥434 to JP¥488. Net income forecast to grow 43% next year vs 7.5% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥4,997 to JP¥5,211. Share price was steady at JP¥5,840 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥121 (down from JP¥147 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥157.1b (down 4.0% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥7.22b (down 17% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 4.6% (down from 5.3% in 2Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥107 (down from JP¥198 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥160.1b (down 15% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥6.40b (down 46% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 6.2% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Jun 29
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥456 (down from JP¥468 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥678.7b (down 5.4% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥27.1b (down 2.6% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 3.9% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 16
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. Announces Dividend for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2025, Payable on June 13, 2025; Provides Dividend Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2026 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced dividend of JPY 150.00 per share for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025 as compared to dividend of JPY 130.00 per share a year ago. Scheduled date to commence dividend payments: June 13, 2025.
For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, the company expected dividend of JPY 159.00 per share as compared to JPY 150.00 per share a year ago. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥456 (down from JP¥468 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥678.7b (down 5.4% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥27.1b (down 2.6% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 3.9% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥150 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 14 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.1%). Announcement • Mar 05
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 13, 2025 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 13, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥54.95 (down from JP¥182 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥164.7b (down 9.0% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.27b (down 70% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.0% (down from 6.0% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 58%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Jan 06
Dividend of JP¥130 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥130. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 14th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 5.7% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 5.0% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 76% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. New Risk • Nov 13
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥147 (up from JP¥89.57 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥163.6b (down 9.0% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥8.74b (up 64% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.3% (up from 3.0% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 35%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥198 (up from JP¥132 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥189.0b (down 1.0% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥11.8b (up 50% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from 4.1% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 32%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 31% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥4,324, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 7.9% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,171 per share. Announcement • May 15
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2024 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2024. Reported Earnings • May 12
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥468 (up from JP¥421 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥717.2b (down 8.1% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥27.9b (up 11% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 3.9% (up from 3.2% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Mar 28
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 10, 2024 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 10, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥130 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 17 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.5%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from JP¥389 to JP¥431. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥700.0b. Net income forecast to grow 19% next year vs 8.8% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,517. Share price was steady at JP¥5,187 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥182 (up from JP¥76.20 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥180.9b (down 5.3% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥10.8b (up 139% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.0% (up from 2.4% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥89.57 (down from JP¥163 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥179.8b (down 6.3% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥5.33b (down 45% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.0% (down from 5.0% in 2Q 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Aug 10
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 21% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.6% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 10
First quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥132 (down from JP¥220 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥191.0b (down 9.0% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥7.85b (down 40% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.1% (down from 6.2% in 1Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 15%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.9%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥708.1b to JP¥686.8b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥483 per share to JP¥406 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 3.5% next year vs 11% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,503. Share price rose 3.4% to JP¥4,579 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 01
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 09, 2023 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 09, 2023 Buying Opportunity • May 31
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 11%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥5,074, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 20% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 30%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.002% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 5.4% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • May 17
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2023 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2023. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥421 (down from JP¥857 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥780.1b (down 6.2% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥25.0b (down 51% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 6.1% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥105 per share at 2.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 05 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 17% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.6%). Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥76.19 (down from JP¥193 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥191.1b (up 1.3% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥4.54b (down 61% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.4% (down from 6.1% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 54%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥163 (down from JP¥213 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥191.9b (down 11% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥9.67b (down 24% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.0% (down from 5.9% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 49% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Sato Kimio was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥163 (down from JP¥213 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥191.9b (down 11% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥9.67b (down 24% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.0% (down from 5.9% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Japan are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 49% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Oct 17
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 8.0%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥6,226, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 24% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 54%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.1% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 0.2% per annum over the same time period. Buying Opportunity • Sep 22
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 21%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥6,709, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 24% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 54%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.7% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 0.8% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 10
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from JP¥875.4b to JP¥843.3b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥676 to JP¥744. Net income forecast to shrink 2.3% next year vs 13% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥5,160 to JP¥5,351. Share price rose 8.5% to JP¥5,500 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥220 (down from JP¥335 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥209.9b (up 1.0% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥13.1b (down 35% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.2% (down from 9.6% in 1Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 44%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.2%, compared to a 2,013% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 54% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 15
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥842.5b to JP¥882.0b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥725 to JP¥644 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 25% next year vs 20% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥5,864 to JP¥5,731. Share price fell 5.6% to JP¥4,555 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥857 (up from JP¥368 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥831.8b (up 42% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥51.0b (up 134% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.1% (up from 3.7% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.2%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the mining industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Sato Kimio was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Announcement • Apr 04
Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Feb 10, 2023 Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Feb 10, 2023