JFE Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

JFE Holdings, Inc. (TSE:5411) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥4.9t were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 14% to hit JP¥144 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on JFE Holdings after the latest results.

We've discovered 4 warning signs about JFE Holdings. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, JFE Holdings' seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥4.91t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 56% to JP¥226. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥4.84t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥239 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for JFE Holdings

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,897, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic JFE Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,750. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that JFE Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 0.1% annually. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, JFE Holdings is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JFE Holdings. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JFE Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for JFE Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for JFE Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.