Takasago International Corporation's (TSE:4914) 29% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

The Takasago International Corporation (TSE:4914) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 29%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 69% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 13x, you may consider Takasago International as a stock to avoid entirely with its 33.9x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that Takasago International's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Takasago International

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Takasago International, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Takasago International's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 63%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 62% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Takasago International is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Takasago International's P/E?

Shares in Takasago International have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Takasago International revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Takasago International that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Takasago International, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.