Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:4612) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to JP¥963 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥466b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Nippon Paint Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥19.96 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nippon Paint Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.90t in 2026. This reflects a notable 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 12% to JP¥78.96. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.90t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥78.34 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Nippon Paint Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,253. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Nippon Paint Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥1,550 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,050. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nippon Paint Holdings shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nippon Paint Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 7.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nippon Paint Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,253, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nippon Paint Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nippon Paint Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nippon Paint Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.