Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation

TSE:4188 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.1t

Mitsubishi Chemical Group Valuation

Is 4188 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4188 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
JP¥1.15k
Fair Value
30.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 4188 (¥799.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1147.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4188 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4188?

Key metric: As 4188 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4188. This is calculated by dividing 4188's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4188's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.2x
EarningsJP¥75.10b
Market CapJP¥1.11t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4188's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4188 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.3x
4021 Nissan Chemical
13.9x4.3%JP¥594.8b
4004 Resonac Holdings
11.5x16.1%JP¥655.0b
4403 NOF
14.3x6.3%JP¥513.3b
4182 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company
13.4x16.6%JP¥463.0b
4188 Mitsubishi Chemical Group
15.2x24.3%JP¥1.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4188 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4188's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$33.69m
No more companies available in this PE range
4188 15.2xIndustry Avg. 11.6xNo. of Companies24PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4188 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4188's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4188 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.2x
Fair PE Ratio19.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4188 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4188 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥799.90
JP¥1,006.67
+25.8%
17.7%JP¥1,300.00JP¥700.00n/a9
Feb ’26JP¥794.50
JP¥1,028.18
+29.4%
14.7%JP¥1,300.00JP¥770.00n/a11
Jan ’26JP¥799.70
JP¥1,053.00
+31.7%
14.6%JP¥1,300.00JP¥770.00n/a10
Dec ’25JP¥784.90
JP¥1,058.00
+34.8%
14.9%JP¥1,300.00JP¥770.00n/a10
Nov ’25JP¥814.70
JP¥1,056.00
+29.6%
11.6%JP¥1,300.00JP¥910.00n/a10
Oct ’25JP¥919.20
JP¥1,049.00
+14.1%
12.2%JP¥1,300.00JP¥910.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥848.80
JP¥1,010.00
+19.0%
11.9%JP¥1,300.00JP¥890.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥921.40
JP¥995.00
+8.0%
7.9%JP¥1,150.00JP¥890.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥917.90
JP¥983.33
+7.1%
9.2%JP¥1,150.00JP¥860.00n/a9
Jun ’25JP¥830.70
JP¥959.44
+15.5%
8.2%JP¥1,080.00JP¥815.00n/a9
May ’25JP¥919.30
JP¥959.44
+4.4%
8.2%JP¥1,080.00JP¥815.00n/a9
Apr ’25JP¥890.20
JP¥959.44
+7.8%
8.2%JP¥1,080.00JP¥815.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥860.00
JP¥961.50
+11.8%
12.6%JP¥1,260.00JP¥815.00JP¥761.2010
Feb ’25JP¥888.10
JP¥982.00
+10.6%
13.2%JP¥1,260.00JP¥830.00JP¥794.5010
Jan ’25JP¥864.00
JP¥980.00
+13.4%
12.9%JP¥1,260.00JP¥830.00JP¥799.7010
Dec ’24JP¥968.50
JP¥948.18
-2.1%
13.0%JP¥1,260.00JP¥790.00JP¥784.9011
Nov ’24JP¥931.90
JP¥948.18
+1.7%
13.0%JP¥1,260.00JP¥790.00JP¥814.7011
Oct ’24JP¥942.70
JP¥924.00
-2.0%
15.7%JP¥1,260.00JP¥750.00JP¥919.2010
Sep ’24JP¥882.40
JP¥878.00
-0.5%
12.7%JP¥1,040.00JP¥710.00JP¥848.8010
Aug ’24JP¥855.70
JP¥868.00
+1.4%
13.3%JP¥1,040.00JP¥710.00JP¥921.4010
Jul ’24JP¥863.20
JP¥863.00
-0.02%
12.2%JP¥1,040.00JP¥710.00JP¥917.9010
Jun ’24JP¥784.20
JP¥872.00
+11.2%
16.9%JP¥1,160.00JP¥600.00JP¥830.7010
May ’24JP¥797.30
JP¥877.22
+10.0%
17.7%JP¥1,160.00JP¥600.00JP¥919.309
Apr ’24JP¥785.70
JP¥869.44
+10.7%
17.4%JP¥1,160.00JP¥620.00JP¥890.209
Mar ’24JP¥800.80
JP¥860.56
+7.5%
18.3%JP¥1,160.00JP¥620.00JP¥860.009
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
JP¥1.01k
Fair Value
20.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/07 07:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/07 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation is covered by 22 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mikiya YamadaBarclays
Takashi EnomotoBofA Global Research
Atsushi IkedaCitigroup Inc