Awa Paper & Technological Company Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 3896 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3896 (¥466) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥23.06)

Is 3896 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3896 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3896 (¥466) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥23.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3896 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3896?

Key metric: As 3896 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3896. This is calculated by dividing 3896's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3896's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.3x
Sales	JP¥15.95b
Market Cap	JP¥4.65b

3896 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3896's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3896 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.2x
7800 AmifaLtd	0.2x	n/a	JP¥1.9b
3877 Chuetsu Pulp & Paper	0.2x	n/a	JP¥18.6b
3864 Mitsubishi Paper Mills	0.1x	n/a	JP¥20.9b
3708 Tokushu Tokai Paper	0.5x	n/a	JP¥41.7b
3896 Awa Paper & Technological Company	0.3x	n/a	JP¥4.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3896 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3896's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Forestry Industry?

16 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

16 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3896 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Asian Forestry industry average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3896's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3896 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.3x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 3896's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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