Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd.

TSE:7181 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.1t

Japan Post Insurance Valuation

Is 7181 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 7181 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 7181 (¥2884.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥8556.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 7181 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 7181?

Key metric: As 7181 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 7181. This is calculated by dividing 7181's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 7181's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.1x
EarningsJP¥99.51b
Market CapJP¥1.10t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 7181's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 7181 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.3x
8795 T&D Holdings
12x5.5%JP¥1.5t
6178 Japan Post Holdings
16x12.9%JP¥4.6t
8750 Dai-ichi Life Holdings
9.6x1.8%JP¥3.8t
7157 Lifenet Insurance
23.6x7.9%JP¥144.8b
7181 Japan Post Insurance
11.1x-2.5%JP¥1.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 7181 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the peer average (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 7181's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Insurance Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7181 11.1xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies42PE0816243240+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 7181 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the Asian Insurance industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 7181's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

7181 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.1x
Fair PE Ratio12.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 7181 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 7181 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,884.50
JP¥3,292.22
+14.1%
14.9%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,570.00n/a9
Dec ’25JP¥3,139.00
JP¥3,181.11
+1.3%
14.4%JP¥3,710.00JP¥2,570.00n/a9
Nov ’25JP¥2,502.50
JP¥3,101.11
+23.9%
15.2%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,310.00n/a9
Oct ’25JP¥2,644.50
JP¥3,101.11
+17.3%
15.2%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,310.00n/a9
Sep ’25JP¥2,745.00
JP¥3,142.22
+14.5%
16.1%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,310.00n/a9
Aug ’25JP¥3,064.00
JP¥3,120.00
+1.8%
16.6%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,370.00n/a8
Jul ’25JP¥3,147.00
JP¥3,120.00
-0.9%
16.6%JP¥3,900.00JP¥2,370.00n/a8
Jun ’25JP¥3,021.00
JP¥2,963.75
-1.9%
16.7%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,370.00n/a8
May ’25JP¥2,876.50
JP¥2,990.00
+3.9%
15.6%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,410.00n/a8
Apr ’25JP¥2,860.00
JP¥2,935.56
+2.6%
13.5%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,410.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥2,855.50
JP¥2,796.00
-2.1%
10.5%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,200.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥2,709.00
JP¥2,756.00
+1.7%
11.6%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,200.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥2,504.00
JP¥2,686.00
+7.3%
13.4%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,180.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥2,747.00
JP¥2,626.36
-4.4%
16.2%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,130.00JP¥3,139.0011
Nov ’24JP¥2,961.50
JP¥2,607.27
-12.0%
16.5%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,130.00JP¥2,502.5011
Oct ’24JP¥2,520.50
JP¥2,472.00
-1.9%
15.8%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,130.00JP¥2,644.5010
Sep ’24JP¥2,365.50
JP¥2,378.00
+0.5%
11.1%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,040.00JP¥2,745.0010
Aug ’24JP¥2,279.50
JP¥2,366.00
+3.8%
11.5%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,040.00JP¥3,064.0010
Jul ’24JP¥2,166.50
JP¥2,414.00
+11.4%
11.7%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,040.00JP¥3,147.0010
Jun ’24JP¥2,120.00
JP¥2,403.00
+13.3%
11.0%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,100.00JP¥3,021.0010
May ’24JP¥2,225.00
JP¥2,395.83
+7.7%
10.1%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,100.00JP¥2,876.5012
Apr ’24JP¥2,067.00
JP¥2,429.09
+17.5%
9.5%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,100.00JP¥2,860.0011
Mar ’24JP¥2,423.00
JP¥2,444.00
+0.9%
10.5%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,100.00JP¥2,855.5010
Feb ’24JP¥2,332.00
JP¥2,346.67
+0.6%
12.0%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥2,709.0012
Jan ’24JP¥2,321.00
JP¥2,341.67
+0.9%
12.0%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥2,504.0012
Dec ’23JP¥2,220.00
JP¥2,333.33
+5.1%
11.5%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,000.00JP¥2,747.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 09:57
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. is covered by 17 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Natsumu TsujinoBofA Global Research
Koichi NiwaCitigroup Inc
J. WaterhouseCLSA