Unicharm Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Unicharm Corporation (TSE:8113), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Unicharm missed earnings this time around, with JP¥234b revenue coming in 7.2% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥33.96 also fell short of expectations by 17%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Unicharm after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Unicharm

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Unicharm are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.06t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 8.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 22% to JP¥175. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.07t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥178 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥5,719. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Unicharm at JP¥6,390 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,800. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Unicharm is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Unicharm'shistorical trends, as the 6.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.5% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.6% annually. So although Unicharm is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Unicharm. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Unicharm going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Unicharm Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.