Lion (TSE:4912): Evaluating Valuation After Profit Surge and Higher Dividend Forecast

Lion (TSE:4912) just reported a 63% jump in operating profit for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, and increased its dividend forecast for this fiscal year. Both moves suggest solid momentum and management optimism.

See our latest analysis for Lion.

Lion's upbeat earnings and higher dividend outlook come after a year of mixed momentum. While the latest share price sits at ¥1,546.5, the 1-year total shareholder return stands at -8.99%, indicating some recent challenges. However, the 3-year total return of 13.33% shows long-term investors are still ahead.

If Lion’s turnaround has you watching for the next growth story, now’s the perfect time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares still down year-to-date and trading nearly 32% below intrinsic value estimates, investors may wonder whether Lion is presenting an overlooked buying opportunity or if the market has already factored in its growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 19.1% Undervalued

With Lion’s fair value pegged at ¥1,911 and shares last closing at ¥1,546.5, the narrative signals a pricing gap that could mean opportunity is knocking. Here’s what’s driving analysts’ optimism behind this number.

The company is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and China, with strategies to capture untapped markets and shift to high-value-added products. The focus on emerging and populous markets is likely to drive significant revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the secret ingredient behind this optimistic valuation? The hottest narrative hinges on ambitious overseas growth and a major product mix shift. But what are the financial forecasts experts are really using to back up this price? Unpack the big assumptions behind this story by diving into the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of ¥1,911 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, potential setbacks in overseas markets or difficulties in shifting to high-margin products could quickly challenge this positive outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Lion narrative.

Build Your Own Lion Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, creating your own narrative takes less than three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lion research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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