RIZAP GROUP (SPSE:2928) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2928 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2928 (¥149) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥141.78)

2928 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

2928 Stock Overview

RIZAP GROUP, Inc. engages in beauty, health, and lifestyle related businesses in Japan.

Rewards

Earnings grew by 77.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 23.7% per year over past 5 years

RIZAP GROUP Competitors

Mandom

TSE:4917

JP¥70.3b

MTG

TSE:7806

JP¥52.0b

Ya-Man

TSE:6630

JP¥87.9b

I-ne

TSE:4933

JP¥40.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for RIZAP GROUP
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥149.00
52 Week High	JP¥203.00
52 Week Low	JP¥129.00
Beta	1.46
1 Month Change	1.36%
3 Month Change	1.36%
1 Year Change	-18.13%
3 Year Change	-49.49%
5 Year Change	-68.25%
Change since IPO	626.83%

Shareholder Returns

	2928	JP Personal Products	JP Market
7D	2.8%	1.2%	0.5%
1Y	-18.1%	-18.1%	-0.09%

Return vs Industry: 2928 matched the JP Personal Products industry which returned -18.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 2928 underperformed the JP Market which returned -0.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 2928's price volatile compared to industry and market?
2928 volatility
2928 Average Weekly Movement	3.0%
Personal Products Industry Average Movement	4.4%
Market Average Movement	3.9%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	8.1%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	2.1%

Stable Share Price: 2928 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 2928's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2003	5,034	Takeshi Seto	https://www.rizapgroup.com

RIZAP GROUP, Inc. engages in beauty, health, and lifestyle related businesses in Japan. It is also involved in the body makeup business; production, wholesale, and retail business of interior goods; sales of cosmetics, beauty equipment, and health food; maternity/baby related business; franchise business for various miscellaneous goods; bag planning/manufacturing; wholesale and retail of recording media, mobile phone, music video software, audio-video related miscellaneous goods, etc.; and book, magazine, and newspaper publication businesses. In addition, the company provides medical institution consulting, marketing support, and medical peripheral services; contact, mailing, and logistics services; printing agency and multimedia advertising services; general commercial printing and special printing services; processes and sells electrical parts; produces and sells various packaging materials and display backlight condensers; and plans and sells sports equipment, such as soccer, futsal, athletics, running, basketball, rugby, baseball equipment, etc. Further, it engages in fitness, cafe, childcare, and soccer club management; wholesale of Japanese clothing, women's clothing, etc.; designing, manufacturing, and wholesale of twisted yarn; watch import and wholesale; real estate/general construction; internet mail order, general merchandise OEM, and production management businesses, as well as operates specialty chain stores that sells casual wear and miscellaneous goods.

RIZAP GROUP Fundamentals Summary

How do RIZAP GROUP's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
2928 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥82.88b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥2.10b
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥162.36b

39.4x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is 2928 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
2928 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥162.36b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥86.91b
Gross Profit	JP¥75.45b
Other Expenses	JP¥73.35b
Earnings	JP¥2.10b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.78
Gross Margin	46.47%
Net Profit Margin	1.29%
Debt/Equity Ratio	88.6%

How did 2928 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 2928 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2928?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 2928. This is calculated by dividing 2928's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 2928's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥82.88b

2928 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2928's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

2928 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2928 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	44.8x
4917 Mandom	125.1x	53.7%	JP¥70.3b
7806 MTG	11.5x	10.4%	JP¥52.0b
6630 Ya-Man	15.7x	10.7%	JP¥87.9b
4933 I-ne	26.9x	15.3%	JP¥40.8b
2928 RIZAP GROUP	39.4x	n/a	JP¥82.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2928 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.4x) compared to the peer average (44.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2928's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Personal Products Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2928 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.4x) compared to the JP Personal Products industry average (22.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2928's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2928 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	39.4x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 2928's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2928 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2928 (¥149) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥141.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2928 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is RIZAP GROUP forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.5%

Forecasted Household industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as RIZAP GROUP has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Check out RIZAP GROUP's track record over time to understand how much the company has returned to shareholders and its earnings growth rate in the past.

Past Performance

How has RIZAP GROUP performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-23.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 2928 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 2928's current net profit margins (1.3%) are higher than last year (0.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 2928's earnings have declined by 23.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 2928's earnings growth over the past year (77.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-23.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 2928 earnings growth over the past year (77.4%) exceeded the Personal Products industry 19.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 2928's Return on Equity (10.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is RIZAP GROUP's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 2928's short term assets (¥73.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥61.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: 2928's short term assets (¥73.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥42.1B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 2928's net debt to equity ratio (20.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: 2928's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 185% to 88.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 2928's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (31.3%).

Interest Coverage: 2928's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is RIZAP GROUP current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 2928's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 2928's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 2928's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 2928's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: 2928 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as 2928 has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Takeshi Seto (44 yo)

19.33yrs

Tenure

Mr. Takeshi Seto has been the President of RIZAP GROUP, Inc. since April 2003 which Mr. Seto established. Mr. Seto serves as President of Global Medical Research Institute Co., Ltd. He was President of Sys...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 2928's management team is considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 2928's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31