There Might Be More To Toho Holdings' (TSE:8129) Story Than Just Weak Earnings

Toho Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:8129) recently posted soft earnings but shareholders didn't react strongly. We did some digging, and we believe that investors are missing some worrying factors underlying the profit figures.

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Zooming In On Toho Holdings' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to March 2025, Toho Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of 0.31. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of JP¥32b, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of JP¥19.8b. It's worth noting that Toho Holdings generated positive FCF of JP¥56b a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Toho Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Check out our latest analysis for Toho Holdings

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Toho Holdings' profit was boosted by unusual items worth JP¥7.3b in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Toho Holdings had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2025. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Toho Holdings' Profit Performance

Summing up, Toho Holdings received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Toho Holdings' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Toho Holdings at this point in time. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Toho Holdings and we think they deserve your attention.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.