Earnings Beat: HOYA Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for HOYA Corporation (TSE:7741) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 3.0% to JP¥25,085. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥455b were in line with what the analysts predicted, HOYA surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥313 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from HOYA's 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥910.8b in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 2.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 6.3% to JP¥653. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥911.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥651 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for HOYA

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥23,944, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on HOYA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥30,000 and the most bearish at JP¥20,000 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await HOYA shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that HOYA's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that HOYA is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HOYA's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥23,944, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple HOYA analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the HOYA Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.