Analysts Have Been Trimming Their H.U. Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:4544) Price Target After Its Latest Report

Last week, you might have seen that H.U. Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:4544) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to JP¥2,355 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at JP¥237b, while statutory losses ballooned to JP¥133 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for H.U. Group Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from H.U. Group Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of JP¥242.4b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with H.U. Group Holdings forecast to report a statutory profit of JP¥27.25 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥242.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥48.72 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.0% to JP¥2,368, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on H.U. Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,500 and the most bearish at JP¥2,170 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting H.U. Group Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the H.U. Group Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that H.U. Group Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.9% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than H.U. Group Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for H.U. Group Holdings. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that H.U. Group Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of H.U. Group Holdings' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for H.U. Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for H.U. Group Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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