Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Alfresa Holdings Corporation (TSE:2784) After Its Half-Year Results

Alfresa Holdings Corporation (TSE:2784) last week reported its latest half-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥734b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥154 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Alfresa Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Alfresa Holdings

Following last week's earnings report, Alfresa Holdings' three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥2.92t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 5.1% to JP¥161 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.93t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥153 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Alfresa Holdings' earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥2,297, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alfresa Holdings at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,190. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Alfresa Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Alfresa Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 2.1% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Alfresa Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Alfresa Holdings following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alfresa Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Alfresa Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Alfresa Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.