NH Foods Ltd. (TSE:2282) Third-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

It's been a mediocre week for NH Foods Ltd. (TSE:2282) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to JP¥4,440 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit JP¥371b. Statutory earnings fell 4.0% short of analyst forecasts, reaching JP¥112 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NH Foods after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for NH Foods

Following the latest results, NH Foods' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥1.39t in 2026. This would be a modest 2.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 18% to JP¥329. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.37t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥337 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥5,600, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on NH Foods, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥6,500 and the most bearish at JP¥4,700 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await NH Foods shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NH Foods' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 2.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NH Foods.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NH Foods. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that NH Foods' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NH Foods. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NH Foods going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether NH Foods' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.